tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Las Vegas via Los Angeles: arrives on time 45%

  1. 16:00 JFK → 19:09 LAX
    DL 353 · Delta · 6h 09m · 72% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:59 LAX → 21:10 LAS
    DL 2202 · Delta · 1h 11m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip8h 10mJFK 16:00 to LAS 21:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.