tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Phoenix via Los Angeles: arrives on time 84%

  1. 16:00 JFK → 19:09 LAX
    DL 353 · Delta · 6h 09m · 72% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 3h 26m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:35 LAX → 00:10 PHX +1 day
    DL 3827 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 35m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 11h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 161 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 26m layover.
Arrives on time84%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip11h 10mJFK 16:00 to PHX 00:10, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.