tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → New York via Detroit: arrives on time 43%

  1. 11:39 SFO → 19:14 DTW
    DL 361 · Delta · 4h 33m · 78% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 DTW → 22:16 JFK
    DL 1316 · Delta · 2h 03m · 62% on time, 6.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (6.3% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip7h 34mSFO 11:39 to JFK 22:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.