tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Washington via Detroit: arrives on time 65%

  1. 11:39 SFO → 19:14 DTW
    DL 361 · Delta · 4h 33m · 78% on time, 0.7% cancelled
  2. 2h 10m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:24 DTW → 22:59 DCA
    DL 2073 · Delta · 1h 35m · 70% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 85 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 10m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (0.7% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip8h 20mSFO 11:39 to DCA 22:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.