tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Seattle via San Francisco: arrives on time 44%

  1. 16:20 JFK → 20:00 SFO
    DL 365 · Delta · 6h 40m · 67% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:59 SFO → 23:24 SEA
    DL 3991 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 20m · 67% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 9h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip9h 59mJFK 16:20 to SEA 23:24, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.