tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Phoenix via Los Angeles: arrives on time 78%

  1. 16:45 DCA → 19:20 LAX
    DL 392 · Delta · 5h 35m · 75% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 15m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:35 LAX → 00:10 PHX +1 day
    DL 3827 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 35m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 150 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 15m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip10h 25mDCA 16:45 to PHX 00:10, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.