tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Washington via New York: arrives on time 42%

  1. 11:40 SEA → 20:25 JFK
    DL 415 · Delta · 5h 45m · 74% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 JFK → 22:59 DCA
    DL 5743 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 39m · 68% on time, 17.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection78%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 22% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (78%) × second flight not cancelled (17.4% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip8h 29mSEA 11:40 to DCA 22:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.