tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Anchorage → Newark via Atlanta: arrives on time 48%

  1. 20:10 ANC → 07:06 ATL
    DL 416 · Delta · 6h 56m · 53% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:12 ATL → 10:29 EWR +1 day
    DL 2397 · Delta · 2h 17m · 87% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 10h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip10h 19mANC 20:10 to EWR 10:29, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.