tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Anchorage → Phoenix via Atlanta: arrives on time 46%

  1. 20:10 ANC → 07:06 ATL
    DL 416 · Delta · 6h 56m · 53% on time, 1.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:10 ATL → 09:11 PHX +1 day
    DL 348 · Delta · 4h 01m · 81% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 12h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection58%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 42% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (1.9% are) × connection made (58%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip12h 01mANC 20:10 to PHX 09:11, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.