tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Richmond via New York: arrives on time 29%

  1. 18:00 ATL → 20:27 LGA
    DL 434 · Delta · 2h 27m · 64% on time, 2.9% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:15 LGA → 23:01 RIC
    DL 5815 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 46m · 78% on time, 25.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (2.9% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (25.6% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip5h 01mATL 18:00 to RIC 23:01, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.