tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Las Vegas → New York via Detroit: arrives on time 58%

  1. 09:59 LAS → 16:59 DTW
    DL 470 · Delta · 4h 00m · 91% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 3h 11m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:10 DTW → 22:16 JFK
    DL 1316 · Delta · 2h 03m · 62% on time, 6.3% cancelled

Total trip 9h 14m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Las Vegas). Times are local. Both flew on 49 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 146 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 11m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (6.3% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip9h 14mLAS 09:59 to JFK 22:16, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.