tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Diego → Chicago via Detroit: arrives on time 44%

  1. 11:37 SAN → 19:09 DTW
    DL 492 · Delta · 4h 33m · 79% on time, 1.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 DTW → 20:31 ORD
    DL 1665 · Delta · 1h 31m · 66% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (1.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip6h 54mSAN 11:37 to ORD 20:31, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.