tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → San Francisco via Los Angeles: arrives on time 44%

  1. 18:40 RDU → 20:50 LAX
    DL 508 · Delta · 5h 10m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 LAX → 23:22 SFO
    DL 2986 · Delta · 1h 25m · 60% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip7h 45mRDU 18:40 to SFO 23:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.