tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Los Angeles → Tampa via Atlanta: arrives on time 50%

  1. 07:05 LAX → 14:30 ATL
    DL 515 · Delta · 4h 25m · 84% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:20 ATL → 16:50 TPA
    DL 759 · Delta · 1h 30m · 70% on time, 0.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of Los Angeles). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.3% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip6h 45mLAX 07:05 to TPA 16:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.