tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Atlanta → Madison via New York: arrives on time 42%

  1. 14:30 ATL → 16:49 LGA
    DL 524 · Delta · 2h 19m · 73% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in New York (LGA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:50 LGA → 19:43 MSN
    DL 5853 · Delta, flown by Republic · 2h 53m · 63% on time, 7.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Atlanta). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (7.3% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip6h 13mATL 14:30 to MSN 19:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.