tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Houston via Atlanta: arrives on time 55%

  1. 14:00 SFO → 21:49 ATL
    DL 531 · Delta · 4h 52m · 78% on time, 0.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:44 ATL → 23:56 IAH
    DL 1601 · Delta · 2h 12m · 76% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (0.4% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip7h 56mSFO 14:00 to IAH 23:56, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.