tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Dulles via Atlanta: arrives on time 59%

  1. 14:00 SFO → 21:49 ATL
    DL 531 · Delta · 4h 52m · 78% on time, 0.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:53 ATL → 00:44 IAD +1 day
    DL 2549 · Delta · 1h 51m · 75% on time, 2.1% cancelled

Total trip 7h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection81%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 19% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (0.4% are) × connection made (81%) × second flight not cancelled (2.1% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip7h 44mSFO 14:00 to IAD 00:44, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.