tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Newark via Atlanta: arrives on time 47%

  1. 14:00 SFO → 21:49 ATL
    DL 531 · Delta · 4h 52m · 78% on time, 0.4% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:40 ATL → 00:57 EWR +1 day
    DL 2552 · Delta · 2h 18m · 70% on time, 2.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (0.4% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (2.6% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip7h 58mSFO 14:00 to EWR 00:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.