tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Baltimore via Atlanta: arrives on time 56%

  1. 14:00 SFO → 21:49 ATL
    DL 531 · Delta · 4h 52m · 78% on time, 0.4% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 ATL → 00:40 BWI +1 day
    DL 2590 · Delta · 1h 55m · 78% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (0.4% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip7h 40mSFO 14:00 to BWI 00:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.