tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Minneapolis via New York: arrives on time 71%

  1. 22:35 PHX → 06:27 JFK
    DL 548 · Delta · 4h 52m · 89% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:15 JFK → 09:26 MSP +1 day
    DL 2390 · Delta · 3h 11m · 87% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 8h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection83%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 17% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time71%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (83%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip8h 51mPHX 22:35 to MSP 09:26, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.