tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Washington via New York: arrives on time 84%

  1. 22:35 PHX → 06:27 JFK
    DL 548 · Delta · 4h 52m · 89% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 08m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:35 JFK → 10:02 DCA +1 day
    DL 5750 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 27m · 92% on time, 3.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 83 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 08m layover.
Arrives on time84%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (3.5% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip8h 27mPHX 22:35 to DCA 10:02, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.