tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Dulles via New York: arrives on time 83%

  1. 22:35 PHX → 06:27 JFK
    DL 548 · Delta · 4h 52m · 89% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 49m layover in New York (JFK) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:16 JFK → 11:48 IAD +1 day
    DL 5835 · Delta, flown by Republic · 1h 32m · 87% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 10h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 184 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 49m layover.
Arrives on time83%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (87%).
Total trip10h 13mPHX 22:35 to IAD 11:48, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.