tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Fairbanks via Seattle: arrives on time 85%

  1. 17:55 ORD → 20:34 SEA
    DL 637 · Delta · 4h 39m · 60% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 53m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 23:27 SEA → 02:15 FAI +1 day
    AS 1512 · Alaska · 3h 48m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 11h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 83 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 53m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip11h 20mORD 17:55 to FAI 02:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.