tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Fairbanks via Seattle: arrives on time 53%

  1. 17:55 ORD → 20:34 SEA
    DL 637 · Delta · 4h 39m · 60% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:41 SEA → 00:30 FAI +1 day
    DL 2186 · Delta · 3h 49m · 79% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 9h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 43 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip9h 35mORD 17:55 to FAI 00:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.