tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Washington via Atlanta: arrives on time 58%

  1. 07:50 SFO → 15:33 ATL
    DL 640 · Delta · 4h 43m · 90% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:40 ATL → 18:33 DCA
    DL 950 · Delta · 1h 53m · 65% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 7h 43m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip7h 43mSFO 07:50 to DCA 18:33, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.