tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → New York via Atlanta: arrives on time 44%

  1. 23:59 SFO → 07:42 ATL
    DL 690 · Delta · 4h 43m · 72% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:30 ATL → 10:43 LGA +1 day
    DL 513 · Delta · 2h 13m · 88% on time, 4.6% cancelled

Total trip 7h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (4.6% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip7h 44mSFO 23:59 to LGA 10:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.