tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Las Vegas via Seattle: arrives on time 58%

  1. 07:00 JFK → 10:05 SEA
    DL 699 · Delta · 6h 05m · 74% on time, 3.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:05 SEA → 13:39 LAS
    DL 2880 · Delta · 2h 34m · 82% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 9h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (3.0% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip9h 39mJFK 07:00 to LAS 13:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.