tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Sacramento via Los Angeles: arrives on time 75%

  1. 13:40 JFK → 16:38 LAX
    DL 747 · Delta · 6h 02m · 81% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 4h 52m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 LAX → 23:04 SMF
    DL 4083 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 34m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 12h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 247 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 4h 52m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip12h 24mJFK 13:40 to SMF 23:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.