tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Sacramento via Los Angeles: arrives on time 63%

  1. 17:05 JFK → 20:20 LAX
    DL 771 · Delta · 6h 15m · 78% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 LAX → 23:04 SMF
    DL 4083 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 34m · 76% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection84%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 16% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (84%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip8h 59mJFK 17:05 to SMF 23:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.