tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Newark via Detroit: arrives on time 63%

  1. 05:40 SFO → 13:13 DTW
    DL 772 · Delta · 4h 33m · 93% on time, 0.3% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:10 DTW → 15:59 EWR
    DL 2573 · Delta · 1h 49m · 71% on time, 4.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of San Francisco). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (0.3% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip7h 19mSFO 05:40 to EWR 15:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.