tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Las Vegas via Seattle: arrives on time 43%

  1. 16:36 DCA → 19:30 SEA
    DL 786 · Delta · 5h 54m · 66% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:20 SEA → 22:59 LAS
    DL 2949 · Delta · 2h 39m · 81% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 9h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip9h 23mDCA 16:36 to LAS 22:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.