tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Los Angeles → St Louis via Detroit: arrives on time 51%

  1. 11:45 LAX → 19:09 DTW
    DL 802 · Delta · 4h 24m · 77% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:00 DTW → 20:39 STL
    DL 1541 · Delta · 1h 39m · 78% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 6h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Los Angeles). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip6h 54mLAX 11:45 to STL 20:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.