tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Santa Ana via Las Vegas: arrives on time 85%

  1. 11:30 JFK → 14:02 LAS
    DL 807 · Delta · 5h 32m · 82% on time, 3.4% cancelled
  2. 4h 04m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:06 LAS → 19:28 SNA
    DL 4179 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 22m · 89% on time, 0.8% cancelled

Total trip 10h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 199 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 4h 04m layover.
Arrives on time85%First flight not cancelled (3.4% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.8% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip10h 58mJFK 11:30 to SNA 19:28, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.