tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Louisville via Detroit: arrives on time 68%

  1. 08:30 TPA → 11:10 DTW
    DL 808 · Delta · 2h 40m · 93% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:13 DTW → 13:39 SDF
    DL 5160 · Delta, flown by Endeavor · 1h 26m · 76% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 5h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time68%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip5h 09mTPA 08:30 to SDF 13:39, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.