tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → San Francisco via Seattle: arrives on time 48%

  1. 18:14 AUS → 20:50 SEA
    DL 831 · Delta · 4h 36m · 76% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 SEA → 00:06 SFO +1 day
    DL 2635 · Delta · 2h 21m · 71% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 7h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip7h 52mAUS 18:14 to SFO 00:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.