tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Newark via Detroit: arrives on time 47%

  1. 13:31 MSN → 15:53 DTW
    DL 844 · Delta · 1h 22m · 81% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 51m layover in Detroit (DTW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:44 DTW → 19:30 EWR
    DL 2567 · Delta · 1h 46m · 53% on time, 3.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 35 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 66 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 51m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (3.0% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip4h 59mMSN 13:31 to EWR 19:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.