tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Madison via Atlanta: arrives on time 55%

  1. 18:25 DCA → 20:30 ATL
    DL 850 · Delta · 2h 05m · 68% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:32 ATL → 22:43 MSN
    DL 2144 · Delta · 2h 11m · 83% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip5h 18mDCA 18:25 to MSN 22:43, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.