tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Washington → Pensacola via Atlanta: arrives on time 58%

  1. 18:25 DCA → 20:30 ATL
    DL 850 · Delta · 2h 05m · 68% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:39 ATL → 21:54 PNS
    DL 3086 · Delta · 1h 14m · 83% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Washington). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip4h 28mDCA 18:25 to PNS 21:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.