tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Anchorage → New York via Seattle: arrives on time 63%

  1. 06:00 ANC → 10:43 SEA
    DL 853 · Delta · 3h 43m · 89% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:40 SEA → 20:25 JFK
    DL 415 · Delta · 5h 45m · 74% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 10h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time63%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip10h 25mANC 06:00 to JFK 20:25, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.