tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → San Jose via Salt Lake City: arrives on time 50%

  1. 18:29 JFK → 21:58 SLC
    DL 863 · Delta · 5h 29m · 75% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Salt Lake City (SLC) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 SLC → 23:39 SJC
    DL 1272 · Delta · 1h 54m · 83% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 8h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip8h 10mJFK 18:29 to SJC 23:39, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.