tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Sacramento via Salt Lake City: arrives on time 67%

  1. 18:29 JFK → 21:58 SLC
    DL 863 · Delta · 5h 29m · 75% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Salt Lake City (SLC) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:04 SLC → 23:44 SMF
    DL 1582 · Delta · 1h 44m · 90% on time, 1.1% cancelled

Total trip 8h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection78%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 22% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time67%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (78%) × second flight not cancelled (1.1% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip8h 19mJFK 18:29 to SMF 23:44, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.