tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

New York → Oakland via Salt Lake City: arrives on time 62%

  1. 18:29 JFK → 21:58 SLC
    DL 863 · Delta · 5h 29m · 75% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Salt Lake City (SLC) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:50 SLC → 23:50 OAK
    DL 3797 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 01m · 95% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 3 h behind New York). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time62%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (95%).
Total trip8h 22mJFK 18:29 to OAK 23:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.