tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Fairbanks via Seattle: arrives on time 83%

  1. 18:55 MSP → 20:48 SEA
    DL 881 · Delta · 3h 53m · 75% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 2h 39m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 23:27 SEA → 02:15 FAI +1 day
    AS 1512 · Alaska · 3h 48m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 69 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 39m layover.
Arrives on time83%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip10h 20mMSP 18:55 to FAI 02:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.