tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Fairbanks via Seattle: arrives on time 51%

  1. 18:55 MSP → 20:48 SEA
    DL 881 · Delta · 3h 53m · 75% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:41 SEA → 00:30 FAI +1 day
    DL 2186 · Delta · 3h 49m · 79% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time51%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip8h 35mMSP 18:55 to FAI 00:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.