tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → San Francisco via Seattle: arrives on time 50%

  1. 18:55 MSP → 20:48 SEA
    DL 881 · Delta · 3h 53m · 75% on time, 1.1% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:45 SEA → 00:06 SFO +1 day
    DL 2635 · Delta · 2h 21m · 71% on time, 1.2% cancelled

Total trip 7h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (1.1% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (1.2% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip7h 11mMSP 18:55 to SFO 00:06, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.