tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → New York via Atlanta: arrives on time 88%

  1. 23:59 PHX → 06:39 ATL
    DL 929 · Delta · 3h 40m · 86% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 01m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:40 ATL → 12:00 JFK +1 day
    DL 1034 · Delta · 2h 16m · 90% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 8h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 136 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 01m layover.
Arrives on time88%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip8h 57mPHX 23:59 to JFK 12:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.