tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Louisville via Atlanta: arrives on time 87%

  1. 23:59 PHX → 06:39 ATL
    DL 929 · Delta · 3h 40m · 86% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 2h 31m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:10 ATL → 10:29 SDF +1 day
    DL 1374 · Delta · 1h 22m · 90% on time, 2.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 106 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 31m layover.
Arrives on time87%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (2.3% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip7h 33mPHX 23:59 to SDF 10:29, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.