tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Dulles via Atlanta: arrives on time 84%

  1. 23:59 PHX → 06:39 ATL
    DL 929 · Delta · 3h 40m · 86% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 11m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:50 ATL → 11:39 IAD +1 day
    DL 1444 · Delta · 1h 48m · 88% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 146 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 11m layover.
Arrives on time84%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (88%).
Total trip8h 39mPHX 23:59 to IAD 11:39, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.