tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Newark via Atlanta: arrives on time 82%

  1. 23:59 PHX → 06:39 ATL
    DL 929 · Delta · 3h 40m · 86% on time, 0.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 24m layover in Atlanta (ATL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:03 ATL → 12:24 EWR +1 day
    DL 2401 · Delta · 2h 21m · 86% on time, 3.2% cancelled

Total trip 9h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 159 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 24m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (0.5% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (3.2% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip9h 25mPHX 23:59 to EWR 12:24, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.