tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Santa Ana via Seattle: arrives on time 55%

  1. 16:46 DTW → 18:45 SEA
    DL 944 · Delta · 4h 59m · 72% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Seattle (SEA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:35 SEA → 22:30 SNA
    DL 3932 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 2h 55m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 44m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time55%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip8h 44mDTW 16:46 to SNA 22:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.